on-chain forward-outcome data

The smart money you're copying is already gone.

I ranked the 80 best-performing wallets on pump.fun from months of historical trade flow. In a fresh capture run June 15–20, 20269.7 million live trades across 306,378 wallets — just 6 of those 80 appear at all; 74 made zero trades, not just fewer. Static copy-lists rot — and that's just the start of what the data says.

Top-80 ranked wallets Jun 15–20, 2026
Still in flow80
Dropped off0
Gone from flow74/80
6/80 of 80 ranked wallets, active in a 9.7M-trade capture

These 80 were the top performers across months of pump.fun trade flow. In a capture run June 15–20, 2026, just six of them appear anywhere across 9,733,600 live trades and 306,378 wallets — the other 74 made zero trades in the window.

The other 74 didn't die — they rotated out of view. Profitable memecoin wallets cycle addresses fast, often on purpose, so copytraders can't follow. Any static "smart money" list is structurally guaranteed to go cold — which is exactly why copying the same wallets stops working, and why a list is the wrong product. A live, re-identified feed is the right one.

measured, not guessed

What actually happens to a pump.fun token.

Across 41,052 coins captured deeply enough to trace (n_snaps ≥ 4) and tracked to outcome — not a snapshot of "risk right now," but the recorded ground truth of where each token went. 70.9% never doubled.

Of 41,052 deeply-traced coins (n_snaps ≥ 4), the share that ever reached —

Hit +50%47.6%
Hit +100%29.1%
Hit +300%10.5%
Sellable at a profit 22.8%

Of all 84,583 launches tracked: 0.13% ever graduated.

Bars scaled to 100%, over the 41,052 deeply-traced coins (n_snaps ≥ 4). "Sellable at a profit" = share whose peak real liquidity reached ≥ 10 SOL — enough depth for a modest exit, the number that decides whether a paper gain is a real one. This is the layer risk-scanners never measure.

Recorded outcomes captured through June 17, 2026 · live scans are real-time.

the difference

Risk scores tell you now. We tell you what happened.

Every scanner grades a token in the present tense. None of them carry the outcome. Forward-labeled history is the asset nobody else publishes.

Point-in-time risk scanners

"This creator has rugged before."

A present-tense flag. Useful, binary, and already free from several funded tools.

creator_risk: HIGH ⚠
mint_authority: revoked
flag: prior_rug = true
GROUNDTRUTH outcome data

Example creator — 47 launches, 2 graduated.

The recorded track record — counts, medians, timings — pulled from outcomes already labeled in the capture.

launches: 47 · graduated: 2 (4.3%)
median peak: +12% · rug rate: 83% (39 of 47)
recoverable_exit: 31% of launches
try it

Paste a coin — or a wallet.

GROUNDTRUTH replays what actually happened to a pump.fun coin — not the chart's best case, but what you could really have sold into. Paste a coin for its autopsy, or a wallet for its rap sheet.

Drop a token contract to see who's holding it right now: holder concentration, snipers still in, how many known ruggers and flagged fast-exit wallets are already in front of you — plus the launcher's rug history. Or drop a wallet address to pull its rap sheet.

How to read a card ▾

Realized exit — what you'd actually net selling into real liquidity, not the chart price.

Peak real liquidity — the SOL truly available to sell into at the coin's deepest.

Verdict — the recorded outcome: rugged, bled out, graduated, or survived.

groundtruth.scan() sample / illustrative data
CB1WRf…uKD8M exit liquidity risk · high
18 buyers · 4 operators 14 of the launch buyers are sock-puppets run by operators already in the crowd. Largest pool: 9 wallets.
creator tracked ✓ 47 launches · 2 graduated (4.3%) · 83% rug rate
Mint authorityRevoked ✓
Freeze authorityRevoked ✓
Top-10 hold61%
Dev holding8%
Market cap284 SOL
Liquidity31 SOL
Snipers still in9
Bundled buys11
Token age2h
Real holders
Curve status

// sample card · paste a coin to run it live

known rugger flagged fast-exit insider-linked
SOL balance
Token holdings

early access

Stop copying ghosts.

The live feed and the wallet/creator checker are opening to a first batch. Get in before it's gated.

Or follow the data drops on @groundtruth_now — the findings post there first.