Every scanner sells liquidity depth as a safety signal. Across 518,705 pump.fun launches, it isn't one — 96.851% rugged or died. Split the coins that actually traded into five bands over an 11.7× liquidity span and failure barely moves: 87-93% at every level. Deeper liquidity doesn't make a token safer. It makes it worth rugging.
Split the 95,234 coins that actually traded into five bands by early bonding liquidity, read at 5 seconds — an 11.7× span, from under 0.93 SOL to over 10.86 SOL. The failure rate: 92.69%, 87.10%, 88.95%, 92.96%, 90.20%. It barely moves, and it isn't even monotonic.
Liquidity does buy something — a 9.5× better shot at graduating, 0.21% to 1.99%. It buys no protection at all. Deep liquidity doesn't make a token safe. It makes it worth rugging. That is the signal every other scanner is selling you.
Scanners sell one signal: more early liquidity = safer. Across an 11.7× span of real SOL at the 5-second mark, failure stays flat — lowest at band 2, highest at band 4. No gradient. The signal is noise.
Across 518,705 pump.fun launches, each tracked to a recorded outcome. 96.851% rugged or died. 66% never even cleared a 2-SOL peak; every one of those died.
Of all 518,705 launches: 0.133% ever graduated. 89% never doubled.
Two populations, both stated, never blended. The 518,705-launch census carries a recorded outcome for every coin. The bars above are the 1,944 coins with full trade-level labels — the only subset with a realized return — and all four bars, including liquidity, are computed over that same 1,944. "Sellable at a profit" = peak REAL liquidity ≥ 10 SOL: enough depth for a modest exit. Every n is disclosed. This is the layer risk-scanners never measure.
Outcomes labeled in a single pass on 2026-06-28, covering launches through 2026-06-27. Capture has since run to 2026-07-09; those launches are not yet labeled. Live scans are real-time.
Every scanner grades a token in the present tense. None of them carry the outcome. Forward-labeled history is the asset nobody else publishes.
A present-tense flag. Useful, binary, and already free from several funded tools.
The recorded track record — counts, medians, timings — pulled from outcomes already labeled in the capture.
Compared against the creator-average baseline of 68.2% — the rug rate across every launch we can attribute to a creator (N=19,724, 3.803% of the census). Not the 27% figure for all 518,705 launches: 66% of those never clear a 2-SOL peak and rug at 0.0% — they cannot rug, they die. We attribute rugs more easily than quiet deaths (a pulled liquidity leaves a signed transaction; a token that fades leaves its dev anonymous), so attributed creator rug rates likely run somewhat high — we flag the bias rather than hide it.
At launch, a swarm of wallets buys in the first blocks — organic demand, or so it reads. Strip the masks and it collapses to a handful of sock-puppets run by one operator — whose launch history we already hold.
GROUNDTRUTH replays what actually happened to a pump.fun coin — not the chart's best case, but what you could really have sold into. Paste a coin for its autopsy, or a wallet for its rap sheet.
Drop a token contract to see who's holding it right now: holder concentration, snipers still in, how many known ruggers and flagged fast-exit wallets are already in front of you — plus the launcher's rug history. Or drop a wallet address to pull its rap sheet.
Realized exit — what you'd actually net selling into real liquidity, not the chart price.
Peak real liquidity — the SOL truly available to sell into at the coin's deepest.
Verdict — the recorded outcome: rugged, bled out, graduated, or survived.
Compared against the creator-average baseline of 68.2% — the rug rate across every launch we can attribute to a creator (N=19,724, 3.803% of the census). Not the 27% figure for all 518,705 launches: 66% of those never clear a 2-SOL peak and rug at 0.0% — they cannot rug, they die. We attribute rugs more easily than quiet deaths (a pulled liquidity leaves a signed transaction; a token that fades leaves its dev anonymous), so attributed creator rug rates likely run somewhat high — we flag the bias rather than hide it.
// paste a coin (CA) or wallet above to run a live scan
The live feed and the wallet/creator checker are opening to a first batch. Get in before it's gated.
Or follow the data drops on @groundtruth_now — the findings post there first.